TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 12:13 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Comparing prediction market odds to spot price expectations reveals how traders collectively believe the future price of Solana will differ from its current value. If the odds heavily favor a price significantly above the current spot price, it suggests bullish sentiment. Conversely, if the market leans towards a lower price, it indicates bearish expectations. This provides a unique perspective beyond traditional polls or analyst forecasts, as it's backed by real money at stake. It’s a measure of conviction about the direction of Solana’s price, as expressed through financial commitment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the Solana price. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of different outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards a consensus view. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the volume, also influence price discovery. Essentially, traders are using their capital to express their forecasts, and the resulting price movements reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding Solana’s future value.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Solana as reported by a widely recognized and trusted exchange at a specific time on October 5. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders should monitor reliable sources for updates as the resolution date approaches, as any discrepancies or delays in reporting could impact the final outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major news regarding Solana’s network upgrades, partnerships, or regulatory developments would likely have a substantial impact. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, could also influence the price of Solana and, consequently, the market. Unexpected events in the wider cryptocurrency market, like hacks or security breaches affecting other blockchains, could create volatility and shift sentiment. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.