TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 12:13 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to typical spot price expectations derived from analysts or polls. While traditional forecasts often rely on fundamental or technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting what traders are willing to bet on the actual price of Solana. This difference can be significant, as market participants have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to be accurate in their predictions. The current probabilities within this market represent a collective forecast, distinct from expert opinions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different price ranges for Solana. The price of each share reflects the probability of that price range being the correct one on October 14. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, also influences price discovery, with higher volume generally leading to more accurate price signals. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the price of Solana is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Solana as recorded by a widely recognized and trusted source at a specific time on October 14. The exact price used for resolution will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures, ensuring a fair and transparent process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 14, 2026. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as Bitcoin price movements or regulatory announcements, could impact Solana’s price. Specific news related to the Solana network itself, like upgrades, partnerships, or security breaches, would also be influential. Macroeconomic factors, such as inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also indirectly affect the price. Unexpected events, like large token unlocks or significant whale activity, could introduce volatility and shift the probabilities within this market.