TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of SOL cryptocurrency at a specific moment, using a precise measurement method to determine the outcome. The resolution depends on where the price falls within a range of predefined brackets at the exact time specified.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on Oct 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market associated with the range that contains this average price resolves to Yes, with all others resolving to No. The official price is determined by collecting 60 RTI prices during the last minute before expiration and averaging them. It is important to note that while common sources like Google or Coinbase may provide indicative values, they are not used for resolution; only the CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) is authoritative for this purpose.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the SOL price on Oct 30, 2026. These odds represent what traders believe is the probability of different price ranges, aggregating diverse opinions and information. This differs from typical spot price expectations, which might be based on individual analyst reports or polls. It’s important to note that this market isn’t a direct reflection of current spot prices, but rather a forward-looking assessment of where the price will be at a specific future date and time. The aggregated wisdom of the crowd often provides a unique perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOL price ranges. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a specific price range, the price of those contracts increases, indicating a higher probability of SOL being within that range at the specified time. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, specifically at 5pm EDT on October 30, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the SOL price at that precise moment, verified against credible public reporting of the SOL price from a widely-recognized exchange. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the price range containing the actual SOL price. Traders should monitor the market closely as the resolution date approaches, as volatility may increase.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major developments in the Solana ecosystem, such as significant upgrades to the blockchain, partnerships with large companies, or changes in developer activity, could all impact the SOL price. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies will also play a role. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrencies, particularly those impacting Solana, could also cause substantial shifts in the market. Keep an eye on these factors as they unfold.