TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of SOL cryptocurrency at a specific moment, dividing possible outcomes into narrow price bands. Each band represents a distinct range of prices that could be observed at the exact time and date specified.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on Oct 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, with outcomes determined by whether the calculated average falls within that range. The official price is derived from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), where 60 RTI prices are collected in the final minute before expiration and averaged. All markets share this methodology, with each defining a unique price band for resolution.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where the price of SOL will be on October 23, 2026. These odds aren’t necessarily a direct comparison to current spot prices, but rather a probabilistic assessment of future value. Spot price expectations are often based on immediate supply and demand, while this market incorporates a wider range of factors, including anticipated network upgrades, regulatory changes, and overall market sentiment. Discrepancies between the two can emerge based on differing time horizons and the information factored into each assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different SOL price ranges. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular price range, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing expectations regarding the future price of SOL.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome determined by the price of SOL as reported by a credible public source at 5:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting, and contracts will be settled based on whether the actual SOL price falls within the range predicted by each contract. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct price range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect ranges will forfeit their stake.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the Solana network, such as successful upgrades or unexpected outages, would likely cause price fluctuations. Regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency, particularly those impacting Solana, could also move the market. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market will play a role. Finally, significant adoption of Solana-based applications or partnerships with major companies could positively influence the market’s trajectory.