TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of the cryptocurrency SOL on a specific date and time, dividing possible outcomes into narrow price bands. The resolution depends on the average price during the final minute before the specified timestamp, measured by a designated benchmark source.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the official price is determined by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. If the calculated average falls within a market's defined range, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same data source and methodology, ensuring consistency across outcomes.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the SOL price on October 16, 2026, which may differ from current spot price expectations or analyst predictions. This market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders, potentially offering a more nuanced view than a single expert opinion. If a significant number of traders believe the price will be higher than current expectations, the odds will reflect that sentiment. Conversely, if the prevailing view is bearish, the odds will shift accordingly. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly evolving forecast.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOL price ranges. The prices of these contracts determine the implied probability of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the future price of SOL, as profitable trades are possible when their predictions align with the actual outcome. This creates a dynamic and efficient price discovery process.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the SOL price at 5pm EDT on October 16, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the contracts corresponding to the correct price range. Traders who accurately predicted the price range will receive a payout, while those who bet on incorrect ranges will forfeit their stake. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major developments in the Solana ecosystem, such as network upgrades, partnerships, or regulatory announcements, could impact the price. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, could also play a role. Additionally, significant news regarding competing blockchain projects or overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies could influence trading activity and shift the odds. Unexpected technological breakthroughs or security breaches related to Solana could also cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.