TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 04d:01h:09m
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The event tracks the price of Solana (SOL) at a specific future moment, using a precise measurement methodology to determine outcomes across multiple thresholds. Each threshold represents a distinct level above which the price must average to trigger a resolution. The data source and calculation method are consistently applied to ensure uniformity.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EST on November 6, 2026. For each market, if this average exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $69.9999, $70.9999, etc.), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Price data is sourced exclusively from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the official value determined by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. This methodology ensures consistency and objectivity in evaluating all outcome thresholds.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective on the expected SOL price compared to traditional spot price forecasts from analysts and polls. This market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, representing a forward-looking assessment of potential price movements. While analysts may rely on technical indicators or fundamental analysis, this market reflects real money at stake, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what traders believe will happen. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes anticipate events before they are reflected in traditional forecasts, offering a potentially valuable data point for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different SOL price outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view. The market’s depth and liquidity, with a current volume of $1,630, contribute to price discovery and provide a relatively efficient mechanism for expressing beliefs about the future SOL price. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the eventual price and capitalizing on discrepancies between their beliefs and the market’s implied probabilities.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the Solana ecosystem, such as significant upgrades to the network, partnerships with prominent companies, or changes in developer activity, could all impact the perceived value of SOL. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates, inflation, or regulatory policies related to cryptocurrencies, could also play a role. Additionally, unexpected news events, such as security breaches or major hacks affecting the crypto space, could introduce volatility and shift market sentiment, influencing trading activity in this market.