TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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September Inflation US - Annual
polymarket

What will September inflation be?

Volume:
$274,681

3.7%

 - Polymarket

3.7% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 10:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.7%

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3.6%

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,477
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.5%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,588
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.4%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.8%

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≥4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,761
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,639
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the probabilities associated with the annual US inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). You’ll find the current implied probabilities for various inflation outcomes, along with a price history charting how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $62,233, and the total volume traded to date, which is $274,678. This provides a clear view of market activity and sentiment surrounding the US inflation rate.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the US inflation rate. While many economists predict a continued decline in inflation, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to note that prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives, including real-time sentiment and potentially non-public data, which may lead to divergences from standard economic projections. This allows traders to express their beliefs about future economic conditions in a way that polls and surveys often cannot capture.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the annual inflation rate as officially reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the relevant period. The BLS data is widely considered the standard measure of inflation in the United States, and will be the definitive source for determining the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official releases from the BLS as the resolution date approaches.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected shifts in employment data, particularly the monthly jobs report, often have a strong impact on inflation expectations. Changes in energy prices, especially oil and natural gas, can also influence the US inflation rate. Furthermore, statements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, such as interest rate adjustments or forward guidance, are closely watched by traders. Geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions could also introduce volatility into this market.