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September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
polymarket

September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Volume:
$11,128

1.35–1.39ºC

 - Polymarket

1.35–1.39ºC - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 12:55 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1.35–1.39ºC

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.30–1.34ºC

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<1.30ºC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>1.49ºC

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,522
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.45–1.49ºC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.40–1.44ºC

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$877
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the 2026 temperature increase market, along with current 24-hour volume of $5,456. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different temperature increases for September 2026, offering a live view of market sentiment and activity.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final temperature measurement for September 2026 will be compared against the defined ranges to determine which market outcome is correct, based on widely accepted scientific datasets.

Key signals include major climate reports from recognized scientific bodies, unexpected shifts in global weather patterns, and updates from climate policy initiatives that could influence temperature trajectories. Natural events such as widespread heatwaves or cooling episodes may also cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust expectations for the September 2026 measurement.