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September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
polymarket

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Volume:
$6,182

2nd hottest

 - Polymarket

2nd hottest - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 12:57 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

2nd hottest

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st hottest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,482
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3rd hottest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4th or lower

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,073
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the 2026 record heat market dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for whether September 2026 will rank as the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record. You can also view the 24-hour volume of $926 to gauge trader interest. This real-time view shows how the market evaluates the likelihood of extreme heat that year.

Currently, this market reflects a probability distribution shaped by trader sentiment rather than formal climate projections. Analyst forecasts from major research institutions often assign different likelihoods to record-breaking temperatures, based on long-term climate models and historical trends. Comparing these forecasts to the market’s implied probabilities can reveal whether traders are more or less optimistic about extreme heat in 2026.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, official temperature records from recognized meteorological agencies will be compared to historical data to determine September 2026’s ranking. The market settles based on this independent verification, ensuring an objective result.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes. Early-season heat waves, climate model updates, and significant weather anomalies — especially in key temperature-monitoring regions — often drive price changes. Additionally, reports from major climate science organizations or shifts in global weather patterns may influence trader sentiment and alter the perceived likelihood of a record-breaking September in 2026.