TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 26, 9:49 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rockstar Games, or an authorized representative thereof publicly announces that gameplay of Grand Theft Auto VI has been leaked, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement will qualify regardless of which leak it refers to, and regardless of when the leak it refers to occurred, provided the announcement itself is made within the specified period. The announcement must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of Rockstar Games, and reporting that is not attributable to an official Rockstar Games announcement will not be considered. If no such announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rockstar Games.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rockstar Games, or an authorized representative thereof publicly announces that gameplay of Grand Theft Auto VI has been leaked, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement will qualify regardless of which leak it refers to, and regardless of when the leak it refers to occurred, provided the announcement itself is made within the specified period. The announcement must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of Rockstar Games, and reporting that is not attributable to an official Rockstar Games announcement will not be considered. If no such announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rockstar Games.
Currently, this market shows a strong inclination toward Rockstar confirming the leak, contrasting with some analyst forecasts that remain cautious. While analysts may weigh official statements and historical precedents, traders on Polymarket are pricing in a high probability based on recent buzz and community reactions. The gap highlights the difference between speculative trading and more conservative expert opinion.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling contracts that represent either outcome. The current pricing reflects the collective belief of participants, with the top outcome holding a substantial lead. Volume of $9,594 supports the market’s activity level, showing how engaged users are in debating and betting on the likelihood of an official confirmation.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If Rockstar makes an official statement or releases footage confirming the leak, that triggers a settlement. Otherwise, the lack of such confirmation by the deadline will determine the opposite result.
Any official communication from Rockstar, including trailers, press releases, or social media posts, could shift this market dramatically. Additionally, credible industry insiders sharing updates or analysts publishing reports may influence trader sentiment. High traffic on gaming forums and spikes in social media mentions also often precede notable market movements as participants react to new information.