TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 10:38 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the September data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The September release is presently scheduled for October 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the September data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The September release is presently scheduled for October 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Currently, the predictions within this market suggest a range of potential outcomes for the price of a dozen eggs in September. These predictions are formed by the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket, and may differ from the expectations of traditional financial analysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market prices and expert opinions, as markets incorporate a wider range of information and are continuously updated with new data. Comparing this market to external forecasts can provide a more comprehensive view of potential price movements.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of eggs. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific price range being the actual outcome in September. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined by supply and demand; if more traders believe prices will be higher, the contracts representing higher prices will become more expensive, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the average retail price of a dozen large eggs is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and publicly available data source tracking egg prices across the United States. The specific price used for resolution will be determined by the platform’s established procedures, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the final reported price.
Several factors could influence the price of eggs and, consequently, move this market. Unexpected outbreaks of avian influenza, changes in feed costs, or shifts in consumer demand could all have a significant impact. Reports from the USDA regarding egg production and inventory levels will also be closely watched. Additionally, broader economic conditions, such as inflation and overall consumer spending, could play a role. Any news related to these factors has the potential to shift trader sentiment and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.