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$2.60 to $2.70
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Vol.
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Resolves Nov 11, 2026
Time left: 26d:23h:14m
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This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the October data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The October release is presently scheduled for November 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the October data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The October release is presently scheduled for November 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of where the price of a dozen eggs will land in October. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which may rely on econometric models or supply chain analysis. While analysts predict a range of potential prices, this market allows traders to express their beliefs directly, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating unforeseen events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for a dozen eggs in October. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that price range being the correct one. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective beliefs of participants regarding the future egg price.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the average retail price of a dozen large eggs nationally is verifiable from credible public reporting. The price used for resolution will be the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) average retail price for a dozen large eggs, as reported in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. This market’s outcome is based on publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final price.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected outbreaks of avian influenza, which can decimate egg-laying hen populations, would likely drive prices higher. Changes in feed costs, particularly corn and soybean meal, could also influence egg prices. Furthermore, shifts in consumer demand, perhaps due to economic conditions or dietary trends, could play a role. Any major news regarding supply chain disruptions, government regulations affecting egg production, or significant weather events impacting agricultural regions could also cause substantial movement in this market before Nov 11, 2026.