TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.7b

24H VOL:

$142,434,704

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,809,138

499,610

Markets across

37,477

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,829

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Percent of Milk Cows in drought - week of October 13, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will milk cows face?

Volume:
$2,015

25% to 34%

 - Polymarket

25% to 34% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 1:12 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for milk cows inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national milk cows inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for milk cows inventory with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for milk cows inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national milk cows inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for milk cows inventory with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the milk cow drought market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the percentage of milk cows affected by drought conditions as of the week of October 13, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how the market has priced in new information over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $15. Total volume for this market is $2,015. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to agricultural conditions.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market reflects expectations regarding drought conditions impacting dairy farming. It's important to consider how these predictions align with, or diverge from, forecasts issued by agricultural analysts and government reports. For example, if analysts predict a significant drought impact, we might expect to see higher prices for outcomes reflecting a greater percentage of affected milk cows. However, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders, potentially incorporating factors not immediately apparent in traditional forecasts, offering a unique perspective on the situation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more traders bet on a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the percentage of milk cows impacted by drought.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the officially reported percentage of milk cows in the United States experiencing drought conditions during the week of October 13, 2026. This data will be sourced from established agricultural authorities and government agencies, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to understand the potential implications for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting increased or decreased precipitation in key dairy-producing regions, will be closely watched. Reports from the U.S. Drought Monitor and the USDA regarding drought severity and expansion will also be crucial. Unexpected developments like shifts in agricultural policy, outbreaks of disease affecting cattle, or major changes in feed costs could also introduce volatility and move the market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the market’s price.