TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 6:21 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on November 2, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on November 2, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for Palantir. While some analysts maintain a ‘buy’ rating, citing the company’s growth potential in government contracts and data analytics, this market shows a more cautious outlook. The discrepancy could be due to the speed at which the prediction market incorporates new information and the diverse range of participants, from seasoned traders to casual investors, all contributing to the price discovery process. It’s a fascinating contrast to the more deliberate pace of traditional financial analysis.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Palantir’s stock will be up or down on Nov 2, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more traders believe the stock will rise, the price of ‘yes’ shares increases, and vice versa. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, providing a forward-looking assessment of Palantir’s potential performance.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Palantir stock on November 2nd will be compared to its opening price on that same day. If the closing price is higher, the ‘yes’ shares will pay out; if it’s lower or the same, the ‘no’ shares will pay out. The resolution will be based on publicly available financial data and will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures for verifying market outcomes.
Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major contract announcements from Palantir, particularly within the government sector, would likely cause price fluctuations. Earnings reports and any revisions to revenue guidance will also be closely watched. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate changes or shifts in investor sentiment towards tech stocks, could also play a role. Unexpected news regarding Palantir’s competitors or significant changes in the regulatory landscape could also move this market considerably.