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Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations
🌟New
polymarket

Which films will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay?

Oct 14, 2026, 9:20 AM EST - Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$5,072
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$4,319
6%
Open interest:
$2,452N/A

Wild Horse Nine

 - Polymarket

Wild Horse Nine - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Mar 15, 2027

Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?

89%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 29% Low liquidity 150 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Wild Horse Nine

Trade
89%
Yes 90¢No 12¢
2¢
$182
$685
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

The Debut

Trade
82%
Yes 83¢No 20¢
3¢
$336
$392
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Fjord

Trade
48%
Yes 49¢No 53¢
2¢
$443
$170
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Club Kid

Trade
48%
Yes 50¢No 54¢
4¢
$334
$125
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Obsession

Trade
46%
Yes 47¢No 55¢
2¢
$290
$260
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Behemoth!

Trade
20%
Yes 23¢No 83¢
6¢
$411
$270
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Trade
17%
Yes 21¢No 87¢
8¢
$529
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Digger

Trade
16%
Yes 17¢No 86¢
3¢
$219
$907
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

The Odyssey

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 88¢
3¢
$652
$640
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

The Drama

Trade
13%
Yes 52¢No 94¢
46¢
$14
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

The Black Ball

Trade
7%
Yes 9¢No 95¢
4¢
$542
$1,323
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

The Invite

Trade
4%
Yes 11.8¢No 98.7¢
10.5¢
$35
$79
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Elsinore

Trade
25%
Yes 28¢No 79¢
7¢
$107
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Trade
97%
Yes 97¢No 90¢
87¢
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Josephine

Trade
9%
Yes 12¢No 95¢
7¢
$61
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Forgotten Island

Trade
99%
Yes 98.9¢No 98.1¢
97¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

Fatherland

Trade
46%
Yes 46¢No 98¢
44¢
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
polymarket

A Place in Hell

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 97.8¢
2.8¢
$133
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo
active
Total markets: 18

Description

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Best Original Screenplay race tracks the probabilities of different films receiving a nomination, as determined by traders. You can view the current odds for each potential nominee, along with the 24-hour trading volume of $5,072 and the overall volume of $5,072. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has evolved over time. This provides a real-time view of where the smart money is going in predicting the nominees.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the Best Original Screenplay race. While many analysts are focusing on critical acclaim and awards season buzz, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively putting capital behind their predictions. Often, these traders consider factors beyond critical reception, such as box office success and campaign strategies. It's important to note that analyst predictions and market odds can diverge, offering a valuable comparison point for those following the awards season.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether a film will receive a nomination. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand – if more people believe a film is likely to be nominated, they will buy shares, driving up the price, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic and responsive market that reflects the evolving perceptions of traders.

This market resolves around Mar 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official nominations for the Best Original Screenplay category are announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100% for each film that receives a nomination, and 0% for those that do not. Traders who correctly predicted the nominees will profit based on the odds at the time of their trades, while those who predicted incorrectly will lose their investment.

Several key events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major awards announcements from guilds like the Writers Guild of America and the Golden Globes can heavily influence perceptions of a film's chances. Positive or negative critical reviews, particularly from influential publications, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any significant changes in the awards campaign strategies employed by studios or individual films could move the market. Unexpected box office success or controversies surrounding a film could also play a role in how traders assess its likelihood of receiving a nomination.