TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner
predict
polymarket

Who will win Best Actress at the Oscars?

Total volume:
$163,727
Volume 24h:
$947
2,005%
Liquidity:
$639,746
3%
Open interest:
$34,360N/A

Julianne Moore

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 30, 2027

Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 76¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% | APY: 52% 239 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Julianne Moore

Trade
76%
1%
Yes 76¢No 25¢
1¢
$7,773
$103,927
0.55%
2%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Julianne Moore

Trade
N/A
N/A
13.8¢
$29,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
75.5%
Yes 76¢No 25¢
Avg: 7.4¢Max: 13.8¢
polymarket

Actress A

Trade
18%
1%
Yes 19¢No 84¢
3¢
$10,067
$32,658
0.66%
1%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
polymarket

Sandra Hüller

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 97¢
1.4¢
$5,918
$4,285
0%
6%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Sandra Hüller

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,651
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.7%
Yes 4.4¢No 97¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 1.4¢
polymarket

Renate Reinsve

Trade
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 98¢
0.2¢
$6,090
$14,933
0%
3%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Renate Reinsve

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.1%
Yes 2.2¢No 98¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
polymarket

Scarlett Johansson

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99.7¢
2.7¢
$6,193
$1,658
0%
16%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Scarlett Johansson

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.7%
Yes 3¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 2.7¢
polymarket

Virginie Efira

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.9¢
1.3¢
$4,693
$480
0%
34%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Virginie Efira

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 1.3¢
polymarket

Ruth Madeley

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
0.6¢
$4,291
$1,009
0.75%
15%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Ruth Madeley

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,869
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

Rachel Brosnahan

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$4,761
$478
0%
34%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Rachel Brosnahan

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

Léa Seydoux

Trade
0%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.9¢
0.7¢
$5,085
$1,182
0%
18%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Léa Seydoux

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

Actress C

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$6,011
$297
2%
74%
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
polymarket

Actress D

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$3,974
$239
3%
81%
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
polymarket

Actress F

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$6,992
$327
25%
133%
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
polymarket

Actress E

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$4,222
$307
27%
119%
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
polymarket

Michelle Williams

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$4,766
$577
0%
26%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Michelle Williams

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,523
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Sophie Okonedo

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$4,817
$421
0%
40%
N/A
7mo 4w 1d
Active
predict

Sophie Okonedo

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,631
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 4d
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

This event group forecasts the winner of the Best Actress award at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. The markets resolve to the actress officially announced as the winner by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize the same resolution criteria, relying on the official Academy Awards announcement and providing tie-breaking and 'no winner' conditions.Primary resolution logic: Official Academy Awards website (https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the actress officially declared the winner by AMPAS.
  • Non-nominated actresses resolve to 'No' upon the announcement of the official nominees.
  • Ties are broken alphabetically by last name.
  • If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Nominee Withdrawal: If a nominated actress withdraws her name from consideration *after* the official nominations are announced, the market will still resolve based on the official winner as declared by the Academy, even if the withdrawing actress did not ultimately 'win'.
  • Award Ceremony Disruption: In the unlikely event of a major disruption to the award ceremony preventing a clear winner announcement, the resolution will still rely on the official announcement made by AMPAS, even if delayed beyond the ceremony itself.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official announcement of the Best Actress winner at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony (March 14, 2027), or no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if no winner is declared.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Best Actress market at the 99th Academy Awards. It aggregates trading volume from both platforms, currently totaling volume of $163,727, with $1,110 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of who is most likely to win, reflecting the collective predictions of market participants. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? at 75.5%, while Predict leans toward Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? at 14.1%.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or narratives, while this market reflects the 'wisdom of the crowd,' aggregating diverse opinions into a single, quantifiable probability. While analyst predictions can be valuable, the real-money incentives in this market can lead to more accurate forecasts, as traders risk capital on their beliefs. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than conventional wisdom, potentially identifying overlooked factors influencing the outcome.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, leading to differing price discovery processes. Additionally, differing risk appetites among traders on each platform can influence odds. For example, if Polymarket attracts more risk-averse traders, they might be more inclined to bet on perceived safer options, driving down the odds of long-shot candidates. Conversely, Predict might have a higher concentration of speculative traders willing to take bigger risks.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Best Actress award at the 99th Academy Awards will determine the outcome of this market. The official announcement by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will serve as the basis for verification. Any potential disputes will be resolved by referencing the official Academy records and widely accepted media coverage of the event.

Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major award nominations and wins leading up to the Oscars, such as the Golden Globes or the Critics' Choice Awards, will likely impact perceived frontrunners. Critical reviews and box office performance of films featuring potential nominees can also influence trading activity. Unexpected events, like a scandal involving a leading actress or a particularly compelling performance in a late-year release, could introduce volatility. Shifts in public sentiment, as measured by social media and online polls, might also play a role.