TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 2:43 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the most recent YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the video "Eat Everything In A Grocery Store, Win $1,000,000" by MrBeast (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plN7JMbadRg).
This market will resolve according to the number of views the most recent YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the video "Eat Everything In A Grocery Store, Win $1,000,000" by MrBeast (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plN7JMbadRg).
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While analysts often provide point estimates for the number of views, this market allows for a probabilistic assessment across a range of outcomes. Currently, the market suggests a higher probability of the video exceeding certain view thresholds than some initial analyst predictions indicated. This difference could stem from the market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of factors and continuously update expectations based on new information, offering a dynamic alternative to static forecasts.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for the next MrBeast video during its first week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The view count will be sourced from YouTube Analytics and verified against publicly available data. The market will settle to the bracket that accurately reflects the total number of views the video receives within the specified timeframe, providing a clear and objective determination of the winning outcome based on publicly available information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any news regarding the content of the upcoming MrBeast video, such as the scale of the challenge or the involvement of prominent figures, could influence trader sentiment. Changes in MrBeast’s subscriber count or engagement rates on previous videos could also be impactful. Furthermore, broader trends in YouTube viewership or shifts in audience preferences could affect expectations, causing the market to adjust its probabilities as new information becomes available.