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October Inflation China - Annual
polymarket

What will October inflation be in China?

Oct 15, 2026, 11:40 AM EST - Nov 9, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$49,210
Volume 24h:
$1,775
82%
Liquidity:
$11,381
97%
Open interest:
$8,594N/A

0.7% to 0.8%

 - Polymarket

0.7% to 0.8% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 9, 2026

Time left: 07d:03h:09m

Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?

57%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 58¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% APY not meaningful 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.7% to 0.8%

Trade
57%
12%
Yes 58¢No 44¢
2¢
$1,249
$12,823
4%
57%
N/A
1w 3h
Active
polymarket

0.9% to 1.0%

Trade
24%
Yes 31¢No 83¢
14¢
$2,589
$20,961
4%
66%
N/A
1w 3h
Active
polymarket

≤0.6%

Trade
14%
11%
Yes 26¢No 97.7¢
23.7¢
$2,129
$7,700
5%
46%
N/A
1w 3h
Active
polymarket

1.1% to 1.2%

Trade
5%
Yes 7.9¢No 98.5¢
6.4¢
$1,748
$5,773
0%
20%
N/A
1w 3h
Active
polymarket

1.3%+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,665
$1,954
0%
8%
N/A
1w 3h
Active
Total markets: 5

Description

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending October 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending October 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for October 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in November 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for October 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in October 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Polymarket

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending October 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending October 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for October 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in November 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for October 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in October 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the China inflation market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $1,781, and the total volume traded to date is $49,210. Users can view how the implied probability of different inflation outcomes has shifted over time, providing insight into market sentiment. The dashboard also displays the highest and lowest prices traded within a given period, allowing traders to assess market volatility and potential trading opportunities within this market.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for Chinese inflation. While some analysts predict a continued period of low inflation due to subdued domestic demand, this market suggests a higher probability of moderate inflation over the coming months. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured in conventional economic models. This contrast highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when evaluating potential economic outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final annual inflation rate in China. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates available data and reflects the current consensus view.

This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official annual inflation rate for China is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to understand how the official figures align with the market’s predictions. The final outcome will determine which shares pay out 1 USDC each, and which expire worthless.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in global commodity prices, particularly oil and food, could influence Chinese inflation. Shifts in Chinese government policy related to monetary easing or fiscal stimulus would also be major catalysts. Furthermore, any surprising economic data releases from China, such as industrial production or consumer spending figures, could cause traders to reassess their expectations. Geopolitical events impacting trade relationships or supply chains could also introduce volatility into this market.