TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 7:02 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 is higher than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 is lower than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NYA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by NYSE Composite Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 is higher than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 is lower than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NYA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by NYSE Composite Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a strong expectation for the NYA to move upwards. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a more mixed outlook, with a significant minority predicting a potential downward correction. However, it's important to remember that analyst predictions are often based on fundamental analysis and economic indicators, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of information and anticipating market reactions. Discrepancies between these sources often arise due to differing methodologies and information sets.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the direction will be determined by whether the closing value of the New York Stock Exchange (NYA) on September 8 is higher or lower than its closing value on the preceding trading day. The final settlement will be based on official exchange data, ensuring an objective and transparent result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified outcome.
Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could shift investor sentiment and influence trading activity. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global market conditions could also trigger volatility. Furthermore, any significant news related to major companies within the NYA could move the market. Finally, broader market trends and investor risk appetite will play a crucial role in shaping the probabilities until the market resolves on Sep 8, 2026.