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NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$914

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 4:17 PM EST

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24h
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NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 12?

View
0%
72%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NVIDIA stock market tracks the current odds of the stock closing higher or lower by Oct 12, 2026. You can view the implied probability of each outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $914. The total volume traded on this market is $914. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how much capital is being allocated to each possible outcome regarding NVIDIA’s performance.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict continued growth for NVIDIA, this market presents a view aggregated from a diverse group of traders. This allows for a potentially more accurate, real-time assessment of expectations. Discrepancies between this market and analyst opinions often arise due to differing information access, biases, or risk appetites among participants. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment surrounding NVIDIA.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether NVIDIA's stock will be up or down on Oct 12, 2026. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more the price will converge towards either 100 (if the market believes the stock will be up) or 0 (if the market believes it will be down).

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of NVIDIA stock on that date will be used to determine whether the market settles as 'up' or 'down'. The resolution will be based on publicly available financial data, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders should monitor news and market data leading up to this date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the stock price.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major announcements from NVIDIA regarding earnings, new product launches, or changes in market share could all impact investor sentiment. Broader economic indicators, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, could also influence the tech sector as a whole. Unexpected news related to competitors, regulatory changes, or geopolitical events could also play a role in shifting the odds. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.