TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 4:32 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of where NVDA might close. Analysts may focus on earnings, product launches, or macroeconomic factors over longer horizons, while traders on Polymarket react to intraday news, options activity, and short-term technical signals. This can create divergence, especially ahead of major announcements or Fed policy updates that affect tech valuations.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through a automated market maker that balances buy and sell orders. The current top outcome reflects the collective bet of participants, with liquidity and volume of $2,993 influencing how tightly prices track underlying sentiment. Traders can back either side, and the market adjusts based on order flow, news events, and broader market conditions impacting NVDA.
This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final closing price of NVDA on the last trading day of the week will determine whether the market settles for the above or below threshold. No additional data or interpretation is needed beyond the official market close on that day.
Between now and resolution, several signals could shift this market. Earnings reports, unexpected product delays or launches, regulatory news, and broader tech sector volatility are key drivers. Additionally, macroeconomic data like inflation figures or Fed communications may influence investor sentiment toward high-growth stocks like NVDA. Options expiration weeks and large institutional trades can also create short-term price pressure, affecting trader sentiment on Polymarket.