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Science and Technology
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on October 5?
polymarket

Will NVIDIA close above its price on October 5?

Volume:
$483

$235

 - Polymarket

$235 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 4:16 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$235

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$225

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$230

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$245

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$240

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NVIDIA stock price market tracks the current implied probability of the stock closing above a certain price on Oct 5, 2026. You’ll find a real-time view of the market’s odds, a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $475. Total volume for this market is $483. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to NVIDIA’s potential performance.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are typically based on financial modeling and company reports. While analysts may offer price targets, this market represents a real-money view of whether NVIDIA will actually achieve a specific price point by Oct 5, 2026. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or unique insights held by market participants, offering a different perspective on the stock’s potential trajectory.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of NVIDIA closing above the target price on Oct 5, 2026. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations. This contrasts with static polls or surveys, as the price continuously updates with new information and trading activity.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of NVIDIA stock on that date will be checked against the target price established for this market. If the closing price is above that level, the market will resolve in favor of the ‘yes’ outcome; otherwise, it will resolve to ‘no’. The resolution will be based on official data sources and widely accepted financial reporting standards.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 5, 2026. Major catalysts include NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings reports, announcements of new product launches (particularly in the AI space), and broader macroeconomic trends affecting the technology sector. Unexpected news regarding competition, regulatory changes, or shifts in investor sentiment could also trigger substantial price movements. Any significant development impacting NVIDIA’s financial performance or future prospects has the potential to shift the odds in this market.