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Science and Technology
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on October 12?
polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on October 12?

Volume:
$1,271

$225

 - Polymarket

$225 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 4:40 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$225

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$235

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$245

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$230

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$240

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NVIDIA stock price market tracks the current odds that the stock will close above a specified price on October 12, 2026. It also displays the trading volume, which is currently $1,163 over the last 24 hours, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,271. Users can view the price history of the market to see how predictions have shifted over time, providing insight into market sentiment regarding NVIDIA’s future performance. This allows traders to assess the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Currently, the implied probability reflected in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for NVIDIA. While analysts often provide price targets based on fundamental analysis, this market represents a real-money view of whether the stock will surpass a certain level by a specific date. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of factors not easily quantifiable in traditional models, such as event-driven risks or unexpected market reactions. Examining these differences can be valuable for a comprehensive assessment.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the NVIDIA stock closing above the target price on October 12, 2026. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and interest surrounding this prediction, offering a dynamic gauge of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of NVIDIA stock on October 12, 2026, will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of the 'yes' or 'no' outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available financial data from a recognized financial exchange, ensuring transparency and objectivity in the determination of the result. Traders should monitor news and financial reports leading up to this date.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major announcements from NVIDIA regarding product launches, earnings reports, or strategic partnerships would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as interest rate changes or shifts in investor sentiment towards technology stocks, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to competitors in the semiconductor industry or geopolitical events impacting supply chains could also move the market. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on changing expectations.