TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 3:00 PM EST
Predict
This market will resolve to "Up" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the NVDA/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/nvda-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink NVDA/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:45:00Z
This market will resolve to "Up" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the NVDA/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/nvda-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink NVDA/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:45:00Z
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on financial models and company reports, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly adapt to new, unforeseen events. This market, in particular, may reveal insights that aren’t immediately apparent in standard financial analysis, potentially identifying overlooked risks or opportunities related to NVIDIA’s performance.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the NVIDIA stock will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes in the price indicate shifts in expectations. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to a dynamic and responsive market.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the NVIDIA stock price closed higher or lower than its opening price on October 19th, between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM Eastern Time. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Major news regarding NVIDIA's financial performance, new product announcements, or changes in the overall semiconductor industry could all cause shifts in trader sentiment. Unexpected economic data releases, geopolitical events, or even statements from key industry figures could also play a role. Any information that alters the perceived risk or potential reward associated with NVIDIA stock has the potential to move this market, making it a dynamic reflection of evolving expectations.