TOTAL VOLUME:

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$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

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Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
polymarket

When will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) release?

Volume:
$72,756

No release by October 31

 - Polymarket

No release by October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 1:03 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by October 31

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$1,597
$31,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 28

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 23

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,268
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 21

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,064
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 14

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 19

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,322
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,696
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 17

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 6

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

On or prior to October 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 26

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 9

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 20

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 5

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 22

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 8

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,052
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 27

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 13

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$921
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 25

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$819
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Muse Spark Model release market displays the current probabilities associated with various release dates. You’ll find a clear visualization of the odds, allowing you to quickly assess which dates are currently favored by traders. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. Finally, it tracks the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,189, giving you an indication of market activity and interest in this event. The total volume traded to date is $72,756.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a release date of October 27, 2026, with a 100% probability assigned by traders on Polymarket. This contrasts with broader analyst expectations, which are more dispersed and range across several potential release windows throughout late 2026. While analyst forecasts often rely on company statements and industry trends, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. It's important to note that prediction market prices can sometimes diverge from traditional forecasts due to differing information sources and risk assessments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the likelihood of each release date. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that date being the actual release date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates strong confidence in the October 27, 2026 release date, as indicated by the 100% chance assigned to it.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official release date of the next Muse Spark Model (version 1.4+) is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the date announced by Muse directly through their official channels, such as a press release or blog post. The market will settle to 100% for the correct release date and 0% for all other dates. Traders should monitor official Muse announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed.

Several factors could significantly impact the probabilities in this market. Official announcements from Muse regarding the development progress of the Spark Model, including any delays or accelerated timelines, would be major catalysts. Unexpected technical challenges or breakthroughs could also shift expectations. Furthermore, broader developments in the AI landscape, such as competitor releases or regulatory changes, might influence the perceived urgency and timing of Muse’s release. Any credible leaks or reports from reliable sources within Muse could also cause a rapid adjustment in the market.