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Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?
predict

Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?

Volume:
$56,662

1440+

 - Predict

1440+ - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 13, 2026

Closed: Aug 13, 7:41 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

1440+

View
95%
Yes 95.2¢No 4.8¢
—
$14
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
Yes
predict

1480+

View
5%
Yes 9.9¢No 99.9¢
9.8¢
N/A
$10,164
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

1460+

View
2%
3%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.9¢
3.8¢
N/A
$13,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

1450+

View
0%
47%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
N/A
$23,129
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

1470+

View
0%
6%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$963
$10,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the Grok Text Arena market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for this prediction, alongside 24-hour volume of $31,464. It visualizes how traders on Predict are betting on whether the next Grok model will debut in the text arena, showing shifts in sentiment and liquidity as the event approaches.

On Predict, this market currently reflects trader sentiment through its probability pricing. Analyst forecasts often provide additional context, such as expected timelines or technical benchmarks, which can either align with or diverge from the market’s current outlook. Where available, expert predictions may highlight factors not yet priced in, such as upcoming software integrations or competitive pressures. Comparing these views helps identify potential shifts in market expectations as new information emerges.

On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Predict, traders actively set the odds for this market through buying and selling contracts, with the current price reflecting the collective belief about the likelihood of the next Grok model debuting in the Text Arena. The probability displayed is derived from these trades in real time, adjusting dynamically with each new bet. This mechanism captures rapid shifts in sentiment as news, developer updates, or competitive announcements occur.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will depend on official announcements or documented evidence of the next Grok model’s debut in the text arena, evaluated against widely accepted sources.

Several signals could influence this market before Jan 1, 2027. Announcements from official developer channels regarding roadmap timelines, beta testing phases, or feature rollouts would directly impact expectations. Competitor activity — such as rival models achieving similar milestones — may also shift probabilities by altering the strategic urgency. Additionally, any public statements hinting at delays, technical challenges, or partnership developments could cause rapid repricing among traders on Predict.