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Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
polymarket

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

Sep 30, 2026, 8:11 PM EST - Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$64,104
Volume 24h:
$8,009
11%
Liquidity:
$7,143
177%
Open interest:
$18,924N/A

1400+

 - Polymarket

1400+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 93.6¢ buys you 107 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $107 | Net Profit: $7 Multiplier: 1.07x | ROI: 7% | APY: 10% 258 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1400+

Trade
93%
3%
Yes 93.6¢No 7.3¢
0.9¢
$4,315
$18,288
11%
277%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

1420+

Trade
93%
8%
Yes 95¢No 10¢
5¢
$672
$15,752
16%
507%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

1440+

Trade
80%
Yes 79¢No 36¢
15¢
$488
$16,164
26%
151%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

1460+

Trade
21%
Yes 21¢No 80¢
1¢
$1,668
$13,901
4%
115%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Claude Haiku model market tracks the current odds of the question resolving yes or no, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $7,989. The total volume traded on this market to date is $64,104. This provides a clear picture of how traders are assessing the likelihood of a text arena debut for the next Claude Haiku model with 4.6+ capabilities.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the timing of a text arena debut for the next Claude Haiku model. While analysts may offer opinions based on development roadmaps and company announcements, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals with skin in the game. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently or anticipates unforeseen delays or accelerations in the model's release timeline. It’s a real-time assessment of probability, driven by informed speculation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the next Claude Haiku model will debut in a text arena. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the price is to 100, the more likely traders believe the event will occur, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its assessment of the likelihood of the model's release.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether Anthropic officially launches a text arena for its next Claude Haiku model (version 4.6 or higher) before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by a review of official announcements, product documentation, and publicly accessible demonstrations of the model's capabilities. No further details regarding the specifics of verification are available at this time.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Anthropic regarding the development and release timeline of the next Claude Haiku model would be a major catalyst. Positive or negative reports from independent testers evaluating the model’s performance could also shift sentiment. Unexpected delays in the model's training or deployment, or the emergence of competing models from other AI developers, could also influence trading activity. Any news related to Anthropic’s strategic priorities or resource allocation could also move the market.