TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released on...?
polymarket

When will Claude Haiku (4.6+) be released?

Volume:
$26,651

October 7

 - Polymarket

October 7 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 4:11 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 7

View
100%
97%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,063
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 21

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 28

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

No release by October 31

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 27

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,434
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 19

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 23

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$938
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 30

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 14

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 16

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 13

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$540
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 17

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$441
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 12

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 24

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 5

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 18

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$276
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 20

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 6

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the next Claude Haiku release tracks the probabilities associated with different release dates, as expressed by traders. It displays the current odds, allowing you to see which dates are considered most likely by the crowd. You can also view the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which indicates how much activity there is in this market. Currently, the total volume is $26,651 with $14,533 traded in the last 24 hours.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for the next Claude Haiku release reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts may offer reasoned predictions based on company announcements and industry trends, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates factors not yet considered by analysts, or vice versa. It’s a fascinating way to gauge the broader sentiment surrounding the release timeline.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing different outcomes – specific release dates for the next Claude Haiku version. The price of each share reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular date, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, rumors, and overall market sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the release date of the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) version is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100% in favor of the date on which Anthropic officially announces the release, as documented by reliable sources. The resolution will be based on the official announcement and not on beta releases or internal testing phases. Traders should monitor announcements from Anthropic for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Official announcements from Anthropic regarding the development progress of Claude Haiku, or hints about a potential release timeframe, would be major catalysts. Unexpected delays in development, or positive news regarding performance benchmarks, could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, broader trends in the AI landscape, such as competitor releases or regulatory changes, might influence market sentiment and trading activity. Keep an eye on tech news and Anthropic's official channels for updates.