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$142.4b

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$93,860,226

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,586,778,228

469,640

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Natural gas price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

Natural gas price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Oct 9, 2026, 5:00 PM EST - Oct 16, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$42,544
Volume 24h:
$2,984
393%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$40,471
5%

Above $2.899

 - Kalshi

Above $2.899 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 16, 2026

Time left: 01d:15h:13m

Will the natural gas close price be above 2.899 USD/MMBtu on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: 3,819% Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $2.899

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$10
0%
N/A
$10
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.199

Trade
99%
17%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$136
353%
N/A
$136
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $2.999

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 3¢
3¢
N/A
$5
0%
N/A
$5
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.099

Trade
95%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$10
0%
N/A
$10
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.299

Trade
95%
Yes 99¢No 5¢
4¢
N/A
$2,200
12%
N/A
$1,620
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.399

Trade
88%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
N/A
$23,598
0.38%
N/A
$22,765
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.499

Trade
67%
5%
Yes 70¢No 33¢
3¢
N/A
$12,603
1%
N/A
$12,343
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.599

Trade
45%
12%
Yes 42¢No 62¢
4¢
N/A
$898
76%
N/A
$676
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.699

Trade
22%
13%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
N/A
$2,113
218%
N/A
$1,935
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.799

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$294
0%
N/A
$293
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.899

Trade
6%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$33
0%
N/A
$33
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $3.999

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$544
625%
N/A
$544
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4.099

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$100
0%
N/A
$100
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $0.999

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.099

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.199

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.299

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.399

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.499

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.599

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.699

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.799

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.899

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $1.999

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $2.099

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 13m
active
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

The event assesses whether natural gas prices will surpass specific thresholds at a precise moment in the future, reflecting potential volatility and market expectations tied to supply, demand, and geopolitical factors influencing energy markets.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT. Each market has a distinct threshold price, and if the recorded closing price exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to 'Yes.' Prices are rounded to the nearest three decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For instance, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM, closing at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to determine the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the natural gas price market tracks the current prices, trading volume, and open interest. You can view the historical price movements to understand how the market has behaved over time. Currently, the total volume for this market is $42,544, with $2,960 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders believe the price of natural gas will be on October 16, 2026, and allows you to see how opinions are shifting.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they incorporate a wider range of information and real-time reactions to news and events. It’s common to see discrepancies between what experts predict and what traders are willing to bet on, especially when considering unforeseen circumstances that could impact the natural gas price. This market provides a unique perspective, aggregating diverse viewpoints into a single, tradable forecast.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the future price of natural gas. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood of a specific price range on October 16, 2026. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market is responsive to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the settlement price will be based on the ICE Henry Hub Natural Gas price for the specified date and time. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the final, verified price. The market’s resolution is designed to be objective and transparent, relying on established industry benchmarks to determine the outcome.

Numerous factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Unexpected changes in natural gas supply, due to geopolitical events or production disruptions, would likely cause price fluctuations. Weather patterns, particularly cold snaps during the winter months, can increase demand and drive prices higher. Additionally, shifts in economic conditions, energy policy changes, and technological advancements in energy production could all impact the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.