TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 10:16 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Currently, prediction market participants are strongly indicating that MicroStrategy will announce the purchase. This contrasts with typical spot price expectations for Bitcoin, which focus on supply and demand dynamics and broader macroeconomic factors. While spot price analysis attempts to forecast the future value of Bitcoin, this market focuses solely on a specific, time-bound event: MicroStrategy’s announcement. The difference between the implied probability in this market and external analyses reflects the market’s assessment of MicroStrategy’s intentions and capabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether MicroStrategy publicly announces a purchase of more than 1000 Bitcoin between October 6th and October 12th, 2024. The announcement must be official and verifiable through reputable news sources or MicroStrategy’s official channels. The market will then reflect whether the stated conditions were met, determining the payout for 'YES' or 'NO' shares.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any statements from MicroStrategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, regarding their Bitcoin strategy would be closely watched. Unexpected news about MicroStrategy’s financial performance or a significant shift in the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, major announcements from other companies regarding Bitcoin adoption or regulatory changes affecting cryptocurrency could move this market. Any indication that MicroStrategy is preparing for a large purchase, or conversely, scaling back their Bitcoin holdings, would likely cause a substantial shift in the odds.