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Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 5?
polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 5?

Volume:
$6,039

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 5?

 - Polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 5? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 4:26 PM EST

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Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 5?

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 5, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 5, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MSFT price movement market tracks the current odds that the stock price will be up or down on October 5. It also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. Additionally, the dashboard shows the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $6,021, and the total volume traded to date, reaching $6,039. This provides a clear picture of market activity and trader confidence in either direction.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for MSFT. While analysts often provide price targets and ratings based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time expectations about short-term price movements. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard financial models. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential surprises.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether MSFT will be up or down on October 5. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will go up, the higher the 'up' share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading it.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the closing price of MSFT stock on October 5 is higher or lower than its opening price on the same day. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major company announcements from Microsoft, such as earnings reports, product launches, or significant partnership deals, are likely to have a substantial impact. Broader macroeconomic factors, including interest rate changes, inflation data, and overall market sentiment, could also influence the price of MSFT and, consequently, the market. Unexpected news regarding competitors or the technology sector as a whole could also trigger shifts in trading activity and price movements within this market.