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Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$2,938

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 5:40 PM EST

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Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 12?

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,938
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MSFT stock market tracks the current odds that Microsoft (MSFT) stock will be up or down on October 12. You can view the implied probability of each outcome, along with price history charts showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,916, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,938. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment surrounding the future price of MSFT stock.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket suggest a very high probability that Microsoft (MSFT) stock will be up on October 12. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often provide a range of potential outcomes and price targets. While analysts consider fundamental factors like earnings reports and market trends, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk based on their own assessments. It’s important to note that prediction market outcomes are based on a binary up/down outcome, while analyst forecasts provide more granular price predictions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether MSFT stock will be up or down on October 12. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving sentiment of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability implied by the market, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an upward movement in the stock price. The market's price is solely determined by trading activity on Polymarket.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on October 12 is higher or lower than its opening price on the same day. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the direction of the stock price, based on their holdings in the 'Up' or 'Down' shares. The outcome is determined by publicly available market data, not by any subjective assessment.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major catalysts include unexpected earnings announcements from Microsoft, significant changes in overall market conditions (like a broad stock market correction), or news related to key Microsoft products or services. Regulatory developments or geopolitical events impacting the technology sector could also influence trading activity. Any surprise announcements from competitors or changes in analyst ratings for MSFT stock could also lead to shifts in the market’s probability assessment.