Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 31? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 31?
Start: 2026-08-28T12:00:31.000Z
End: 2026-08-31T20:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 31, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 31, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 31, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 31, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Microsoft August movement market tracks real-time odds and price history, along with 24-hour volume of $11,811. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around Microsoft’s expected price direction by August 31. The interface updates continuously to reflect shifts in market sentiment and trading activity specific to this event on Polymarket.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through active buying and selling, which determines the current implied probability for each outcome. The market price reflects collective expectations about Microsoft’s performance by August 31, adjusted for recent news, earnings reports, and broader market trends. As trading volume of $11,811 flows in, small shifts can cause noticeable changes in the odds.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, Microsoft’s closing price on that day will be compared to its price at the market open, determining whether the result is “Up” or “Down.” No additional interpretation is needed — the result is binary and straightforward once the date passes.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 31, 2026. Microsoft’s upcoming earnings release, major product announcements, regulatory updates, or broader tech-sector volatility may all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, macroeconomic indicators like interest-rate decisions or sector-wide performance can create ripple effects. Any surprise news — positive or negative — is likely to cause rapid repricing as participants adjust their positions in the final weeks.

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 31?

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