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Science and Technology
Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on October 5?
polymarket

Will MSFT close above the price on October 5?

Volume:
$16,857

$520

 - Polymarket

$520 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 4:24 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$520

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,075
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$510

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,555
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$500

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$530

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$540

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MSFT closing price market tracks the current odds of Microsoft (MSFT) closing above a specific price on October 5. It displays the implied probability of the 'yes' outcome, reflecting what traders are willing to pay to bet on that event. You’ll also find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $16,757, and the 24-hour volume, which is $16,716. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment regarding MSFT’s potential price movement.

Currently, the odds in this market represent a collective prediction about MSFT’s closing price on October 5. These odds may align with, or diverge from, traditional analyst forecasts. If analysts generally predict a price increase for MSFT, we might see higher probabilities for the 'yes' outcome in this market. However, prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and sentiment than traditional analysis, potentially leading to different conclusions about the likelihood of MSFT closing above a certain level. It’s a fascinating comparison of informed speculation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether MSFT will close above the target price. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more demand there is for 'yes' shares, the higher the price, and the greater the implied probability. Conversely, increased selling pressure on 'yes' shares lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of MSFT stock on October 5 will be checked against the target price defined within the market. If the closing price is above that level, the 'yes' shares will pay out one USDC per share. If the closing price is at or below the target, the 'yes' shares will be worth zero. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted financial data source.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major news regarding Microsoft, such as earnings reports, product announcements, or significant partnerships, could all shift trader sentiment. Broader economic indicators, like interest rate changes or overall market trends, could also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in investor confidence could also lead to price fluctuations in MSFT stock, and therefore, in this market. Any information impacting MSFT’s perceived future performance has the potential to move the odds.