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Science and Technology
Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on October 19?
polymarket

Will MSFT close above its price on October 19?

Volume:
$22,013

$520

 - Polymarket

$520 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 4:16 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$520

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$530

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$540

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,903
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$550

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$560

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MSFT closing price market tracks the current odds of Microsoft (MSFT) closing above a specific price on October 19. You’ll find a price chart reflecting trader sentiment, the current implied probability of a ‘yes’ outcome, and the total volume traded in this market. The 24-hour volume is also displayed, showing recent trading activity. Currently, the total volume for this market is $22,013, with $18,598 traded in the last day. This provides a real-time view of how the crowd is assessing the likelihood of the event.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Microsoft’s stock price. While analysts provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access. If analysts generally predict a more conservative price movement than what is priced into this market, it suggests traders anticipate factors not fully captured in conventional analysis. It’s a fascinating comparison of belief systems regarding the same underlying asset.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcome to the question of whether MSFT will close above the specified price on October 19. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the market’s probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the closing date, the more sensitive the price becomes to new information and trading volume, as traders refine their predictions. This dynamic pricing ensures the market efficiently incorporates available information.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on October 19 will be assessed against the price specified in the market question. If the stock closes at or above that price, the ‘yes’ shares will pay out; otherwise, the ‘no’ shares will. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized financial data source, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the market’s outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major company announcements from Microsoft, such as earnings reports or product launches, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader economic indicators, like inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of MSFT. Unexpected news regarding the tech sector or competitive pressures could also move this market. Finally, significant trading volume itself can be a signal, indicating a shift in collective belief among traders on Polymarket.