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Science and Technology
Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on October 12?
polymarket

Will MSFT close above its price on October 12?

Volume:
$15,484

$530

 - Polymarket

$530 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 4:40 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$530

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$540

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$510

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$520

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$550

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MSFT closing price market displays the current implied probability of Microsoft (MSFT) closing above a certain price on October 12. You’ll find a price chart showing how the market has traded over time, along with the current odds reflecting traders’ beliefs. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume of $15,479 and the total volume traded to date of $15,484, providing insights into market activity and interest. This helps you understand how sentiment is shifting as we approach the resolution date.

Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a strong expectation that Microsoft (MSFT) will close above the specified price. This differs from some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of potential outcomes. While analysts often provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are opinions, whereas this market represents a quantifiable, real-money prediction about the future MSFT closing price.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether MSFT will close above the target price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned by traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price of a 'yes' contract, the greater the market’s expectation of MSFT closing above the price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market stays responsive to new information and changing sentiment regarding Microsoft’s stock performance.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on October 12 will be assessed against the target price defined within the market. If the closing price is above that level, the market will resolve in favor of the 'yes' outcome; otherwise, it will resolve to 'no'. The resolution will be based on official exchange data and widely available financial news sources, providing a transparent and objective determination of the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Microsoft’s financial performance, such as earnings reports or revenue announcements, would likely cause a shift in trading activity. Broader market trends, including overall economic conditions and investor sentiment towards the technology sector, could also play a role. Unexpected announcements related to key Microsoft products or services, or significant changes in analyst ratings, could also move the market. Any event that alters perceptions of Microsoft’s future prospects has the potential to influence the price of contracts in this market.