TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
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Time left: 03d:19h:19m
520
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Description
These markets ask whether Microsoft (MSFT) stock will close above a specified price on November 2, 2026. Resolution relies on the closing price reported by Pyth, with fallback mechanisms to other sources if Pyth data is unavailable. Corporate actions like stock splits will be adjusted for in the price.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same core resolution logic, relying on the Pyth closing price for MSFT on November 2, 2026, and share the same fallback procedures.Primary resolution logic: Pyth (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours.
- If no Pyth Close value is available, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours is used.
- If no Pyth price exists, the official closing price from the primary exchange is used.
- Stock splits are accounted for using split-adjusted prices from Pyth.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Trading: If MSFT does not trade during the regular session, the market resolves 50-50.
- Exact Match: If the closing price is exactly equal to the target price, the market resolves to 'No'.
- Non-Trading Day: If November 2, 2026, is not a trading day, the market resolves 50-50.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Opinion for this market may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders with access to different information, while Opinion could have a broader, more general audience. Also, the liquidity and volume on each platform—currently $25,972 total—can influence price discovery. These factors contribute to distinct probabilities for the same underlying event, reflecting different interpretations of the available data and risk appetite among traders on each venue.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on November 2 will be the determining factor. The market will reflect whether the stock price closed above or below the specified level. Traders should monitor official financial news sources for the official closing price, as that will be used to determine payouts. The volume of $25,972 suggests significant interest in this outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves around Nov 6, 2026. Major catalysts include Microsoft’s quarterly earnings reports, announcements of new products or services, and broader macroeconomic trends affecting the technology sector. Unexpected news regarding regulatory scrutiny or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also impact the MSFT stock price. Any substantial changes in analyst ratings or forecasts would likely influence trading activity and, consequently, the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as they unfold.
