TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Meta's Watermelon released on...?
polymarket

When will Meta release Watermelon?

Volume:
$85,821

October 12

 - Polymarket

October 12 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 7:22 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 12

View
100%
96%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

No release by October 31

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 20

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,633
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 26

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 28

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 21

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 14

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,072
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 29

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 23

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 22

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 31

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,231
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 18

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 13

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 24

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 30

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$932
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 15

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 5

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 11

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 7

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 2

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

On or prior to October 1

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 9

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 16

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Watermelon release market tracks the current odds of Meta releasing their large language model, Watermelon, by a certain date. You’ll find the implied probability of various outcomes, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $46,796. The total volume traded on this market is $85,821. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated release timeline of this model.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a very high probability of Meta releasing Watermelon on or before October 1, 2026. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts that initially predicted a later release window, citing potential development hurdles. However, recent reports indicate progress in model training and evaluation, aligning more closely with the bullish outlook reflected in this market. It's important to remember that prediction markets aggregate diverse perspectives, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than individual analyst opinions.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether Meta officially announces the release of the Watermelon model to the public on or before the specified date. Any official statement from Meta, or widely recognized reporting from reputable tech news outlets confirming the release, will serve as the basis for determining the outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available information.

Several factors could significantly influence the trading activity in this market. Official announcements from Meta regarding Watermelon’s development progress, including timelines for testing and deployment, would be major catalysts. Unexpected technical challenges or breakthroughs in AI research could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, competitive pressures from other large language models released by rival companies might impact expectations surrounding Watermelon’s release date. Positive or negative media coverage and analyst reports could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.