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Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
polymarket

Will Meta release "Watermelon"?

Volume:
$106,955

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 4:44 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49,972
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

November 30

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,267
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 2h
Yes
polymarket

October 15

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,323
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Meta AI model market tracks the current odds of different entities being the first to release Meta’s “Watermelon” model. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $14,381. Total volume for this market is $106,950. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity around potential release candidates.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect a different perspective than many analyst forecasts regarding the release of Meta’s “Watermelon” model. While some analysts predict a late 2025 or early 2026 release by a specific team, this market suggests a broader range of possibilities. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information not yet reflected in traditional analysis. This market allows for a dynamic comparison between expert opinion and collective prediction.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders enter the market with differing opinions, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each entity releasing the model. This creates a real-time, market-driven forecast for the event.

This market resolves around Nov 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the first entity demonstrably confirmed to have released Meta’s “Watermelon” model, as evidenced by official announcements and publicly available documentation. The resolution will be based on the initial public release, not internal testing or limited previews. Traders should monitor news sources for updates leading up to the resolution date.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Meta regarding the development or testing phases of the “Watermelon” model would be a major catalyst. Leaks or credible reports about specific teams making progress, or unexpected delays, could also cause substantial shifts in the odds. Any news concerning key personnel involved in the project, or changes in Meta’s AI strategy, could also move this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for informed trading decisions.