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Science and Technology
Meta's Watermelon Model: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
polymarket

Meta's Watermelon Model: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?

Volume:
$24,126

40%+

 - Polymarket

40%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 7:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40%+

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,439
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo
Yes
polymarket

55%+

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,938
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo
No
polymarket

50%+

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,764
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo
No
polymarket

60%+

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,985
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo
No
Total markets: 4

Description

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta "Watermelon" model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta "Watermelon" model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Meta Watermelon Model market tracks the current odds of the various outcomes, providing a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets. It also displays the price history, allowing you to analyze how sentiment has shifted over time. Furthermore, the dashboard shows the 24-hour volume, which indicates the level of activity and interest in this market. Currently, the total volume is $24,126 with $13,475 traded in the last day, reflecting the engagement surrounding this prediction.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect a different perspective than many analyst forecasts regarding the Meta Watermelon Model's potential impact. While some analysts predict a limited rollout, this market suggests a higher probability of broader adoption. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts. This allows for a dynamic assessment of probabilities that can diverge from, or align with, expert opinions, offering a unique signal about potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises accordingly. The market efficiently aggregates information as traders react to news and events, constantly updating the probabilities reflected in the share prices.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Meta officially announces the broad public release of the Watermelon Model, as defined by generally accepted industry standards for product launches. The specifics of what constitutes a 'broad public release' will be determined by publicly available information and widely recognized definitions within the technology sector. Traders should monitor official Meta announcements and reputable tech news sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Any official announcements from Meta regarding the Watermelon Model’s development, testing, or release timeline would be major catalysts. Positive or negative press coverage, particularly from influential tech journalists and analysts, could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, any leaks or reports about the model's performance or capabilities could influence trading activity. Finally, broader trends in the AI landscape, such as regulatory changes or advancements from competitors, could indirectly affect the perceived likelihood of the Watermelon Model’s success.