TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 4:50 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding Meta’s stock performance. While many analysts predict moderate growth, this market incorporates a wider range of potential outcomes, driven by the collective intelligence of traders. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on fundamental analysis and long-term projections, while this market responds to both fundamental factors and short-term market sentiment. The dynamic nature of this market allows for rapid adjustments based on new information and evolving expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the Meta stock closing above the specified price on October 19. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. The market's liquidity, indicated by the 24-hour volume of $446, influences how efficiently the price reflects new information. Higher volume generally means a more accurate and responsive price.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Meta stock on October 19 will be checked against the market’s threshold to determine whether the market settles in the affirmative or negative. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized financial data source, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market leading up to Oct 19, 2026. Major announcements from Meta regarding earnings, new product launches, or changes in leadership would likely cause a shift in trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate changes or shifts in investor confidence, could also impact the stock price and, consequently, this market. Unexpected news related to the tech industry or regulatory changes affecting Meta could also create volatility. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.