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Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
polymarket

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

Oct 2, 2026, 12:54 PM EST - Jan 8, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$39,226
Volume 24h:
$2,653
14%
Liquidity:
$9,012
58%
Open interest:
$3,401N/A

October

 - Polymarket

October - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2027

Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 88¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% | APY: 82% 77 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October

Trade
86%
6%
Yes 88¢No 16¢
4¢
$1,929
$22,153
13%
142%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

November

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
2¢
$4,246
$13,223
0.31%
77%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

December

Trade
1%
4%
Yes 1¢No 99.7¢
0.7¢
$1,355
$2,852
0.63%
38%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

August

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,481
$998
1%
10%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338. Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026. If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months. The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. If the figure for December 2026 is not available by January 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for a period of up to three (3) calendar days (ET) to allow the figure to be published. If no figure is published within that period, the December market will resolve to "No", and this market will resolve according to the month with the highest published total among August, October and November.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338. Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026. If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months. The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. If the figure for December 2026 is not available by January 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for a period of up to three (3) calendar days (ET) to allow the figure to be published. If no figure is published within that period, the December market will resolve to "No", and this market will resolve according to the month with the highest published total among August, October and November.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Melbourne rainfall market tracks the current odds of each month being the wettest in 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,650. The total volume traded in this market is $39,226. This allows participants to see which months are attracting the most interest and how confidence in those predictions is evolving. The dashboard provides a clear view of market sentiment regarding Melbourne’s weather patterns.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of August being Melbourne’s wettest month in 2026, with 86.0% probability. This contrasts with typical seasonal forecasts, which often highlight spring as the period of highest rainfall due to increased storm activity. However, it's important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on long-term climate models, while this market reflects real-time opinions and adjustments based on emerging weather patterns and information. Discrepancies between the two can reveal valuable insights into the collective wisdom of traders.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each month being the wettest. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that month winning. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular month, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing perspectives on Melbourne’s potential rainfall patterns.

This market resolves around Jan 9, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The month with the highest total rainfall recorded in Melbourne during 2026, as reported by official meteorological sources, will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to view the official rainfall data and confirm the resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome, based on verifiable meteorological records.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Early seasonal forecasts released in 2025 and 2026 will likely cause shifts in probabilities, as will any announcements regarding El Niño or La Niña conditions. Unexpectedly high or low rainfall during the early months of 2026 could also trigger substantial movements. Furthermore, major weather events, such as prolonged heatwaves or unusual storm systems, could impact trader sentiment and alter the odds. Any credible information suggesting a deviation from typical Melbourne rainfall patterns will likely be reflected in the market.