Lowest temperature in Washington DC on May 28, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect collective trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological data faster than traditional seasonal forecasts. While the National Weather Service and climate analysts typically issue May temperature outlooks months in advance, prediction markets update continuously as new weather models emerge. The market's implied probability for each temperature range can diverge from analyst consensus if traders believe official forecasts underestimate or overestimate the likelihood of extreme cold or warmth on that specific date.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026, after the lowest temperature reading for May 28, 2026 is officially recorded in Washington DC. The actual minimum temperature on that date, measured by the National Weather Service or equivalent official source, determines which outcome bracket is correct. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome receive their payout once the temperature data is confirmed and the market settles.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal climate forecasts, and real-time atmospheric models will drive price movement in this market. A sudden change in the jet stream position, development of high-pressure systems, or unexpected cold fronts could push odds toward lower temperatures. Conversely, warming trends or persistent heat domes would increase the probability of higher minimum temperatures. As May 2026 approaches, short-range forecasts become more precise, typically causing larger repricing of outcomes in the final weeks.