Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Jun 16, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often incorporate multiple data sources—weather models, historical patterns, and seasonal trends—that professional meteorologists also consult. Unlike a single analyst forecast, this market aggregates distributed knowledge from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. When meteorological consensus shifts, market odds typically adjust faster than traditional forecasts update. Comparing this market's pricing to published National Weather Service or private weather service outlooks can reveal where traders see edge or disagreement in the data.

This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once June 16, 2026 has passed and the actual low temperature for Washington DC can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public weather data sources that record the day's minimum temperature. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout automatically. The resolution hinges on a single, objective measurement—the lowest temperature recorded in DC on that specific date—making this a straightforward binary event.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal climate outlooks, and new ensemble forecast models can all drive significant price swings in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, polar vortex positioning, and jet stream anomalies influence June temperatures across the Northeast. As spring progresses into early summer 2026, traders will react to actual temperature trends and any unusual atmospheric events. News of climate oscillations or extreme weather elsewhere may also prompt reassessment of DC's expected low, causing traders to adjust positions ahead of the settlement date.