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Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Volume:
$38,835

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,738
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,793
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,738
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Shanghai July 11 temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for contracts tied to the lowest temperature forecast in Shanghai on that date. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and trading volume as participants buy and sell shares based on their expectations. This market reflects the collective prediction of traders regarding whether the day's minimum temperature will hit specific thresholds, with odds updating continuously as new trades execute throughout the market's lifecycle.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and risk appetite alongside expert models. While meteorologists publish deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants with financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability from market odds to published analyst confidence intervals can reveal where traders see upside or downside risk relative to official predictions, though both sources ultimately depend on the same underlying weather systems.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a specific temperature outcome, and the price of a share reflects the implied probability that outcome will occur. As traders buy shares they believe are underpriced or sell those they view as overpriced, the market continuously reprices to equilibrate supply and demand, with the current odds visible in real time on the platform.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Shanghai on July 11 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual minimum temperature observed that day against the contract thresholds defined in the market. Resolution occurs after the event window closes and official data is published, at which point traders' positions settle based on whether their predicted outcome matched the verified result.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric developments can all influence trading in this market. Tropical systems, heat waves, or unexpected cold fronts approaching Shanghai would trigger repricing as traders adjust their expectations. Additionally, historical temperature anomalies for early July, changes in long-range models, and even global climate events affecting regional weather patterns may prompt traders to reassess their positions, causing significant swings in implied probability before the market resolves on July 11.