TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 11?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

Volume:
$38,202

16°C

 - Polymarket

16°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

16°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,742
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,984
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$845
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$481
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical temperature patterns, and seasonal trends for Seoul in mid-June. While professional weather analysts publish deterministic forecasts (e.g., expected low of 15–17°C), prediction markets translate uncertainty into probability. The market odds on Polymarket may diverge from analyst point estimates because traders price in tail risks, model disagreement, and real-time data updates. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in more or less downside risk than consensus weather models suggest.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official recorded lowest temperature in Seoul on June 11, sourced from authoritative weather stations or meteorological agencies. The outcome hinges on whether the minimum temperature matches, exceeds, or falls below the specified threshold. Traders should monitor official Seoul weather data releases and any clarifications from the market operator regarding which data source will be used to settle the contract, ensuring they understand the exact resolution criteria before the deadline.

Key signals include updated weather models from major meteorological centers, seasonal atmospheric patterns, and real-time temperature trends in the weeks leading up to June 11. A cold front, high-pressure system, or unusual jet-stream positioning could lower Seoul's minimum temperature. Conversely, warm air masses or urban heat effects might raise it. Traders monitor long-range forecasts, historical June temperature data for Seoul, and any climate anomalies. As the date approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable, typically triggering sharp repricing in the final days before resolution.