Lowest temperature in Seattle on Jul 10, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they aggregate diverse participant views in real time, whereas analyst models rely on historical data and atmospheric modeling. This market incorporates forward-looking trader expectations, which can shift as new meteorological data emerges or seasonal patterns become clearer. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to published forecasts from meteorological services can reveal where crowd sentiment differs from institutional predictions, offering insight into which outcomes traders view as underpriced or overpriced relative to expert consensus.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific temperature ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand; as more traders expect lower temperatures, the odds for those outcomes rise, and vice versa. The market's price at any moment reflects the marginal trader's belief about the lowest temperature on July 10, 2026, making it a dynamic gauge of collective expectation.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once July 10, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day can be verified from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual recorded minimum temperature in Seattle on that date. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution timing allows a brief window for data confirmation before final settlement.

Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Major weather pattern changes—such as shifts in jet stream positioning, tropical storm development, or unexpected cold fronts—would move this market sharply. Seasonal climate updates, El Niño or La Niña developments, and long-range forecasts released closer to July 2026 may also influence trader positioning. Additionally, historical temperature records for Seattle in early July and any unusual atmospheric anomalies reported by meteorologists could prompt reassessment of probability ranges.