Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 1, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in San Francisco on June 1st is priced through binary or range-based outcome contracts that traders buy and sell based on their expectations. Each contract reflects the market's collective probability estimate for specific temperature thresholds or ranges. Prices move continuously as new information emerges, weather models update, or trader sentiment shifts. The market price directly translates to an implied probability, allowing participants to express precise views on whether San Francisco will experience unusually cold, typical, or warm conditions on that date.

The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026, after June 1st has passed and official temperature data becomes available. The outcome is determined by the lowest temperature recorded in San Francisco on June 1, 2026, typically sourced from established meteorological stations or official weather records. Resolution occurs once verified data is published and confirmed, settling all contracts based on the actual low temperature observed that day.

Several factors could shift market odds for San Francisco's June 1st low temperature. Updated long-range weather forecasts, changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns, or emerging climate anomalies could move prices significantly. Seasonal weather model runs released in the weeks leading up to June may introduce new information about high-pressure systems, marine layer behavior, or unusual heat or cold patterns. Historical precedent for early June temperatures in San Francisco, combined with real-time meteorological developments, will drive trader positioning and contract valuations as the event date approaches.