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Lowest temperature in NYC on June 14?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in NYC on June 14?

Volume:
$57,675

69° to 70°

 - Kalshi

69° to 70° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

69° to 70°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,826
N/A
N/A
$5,120
Settled
Yes
polymarket

72-73°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

71° to 72°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,317
N/A
N/A
$6,628
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

73° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,760
N/A
N/A
$3,964
Settled
No
kalshi

65° to 66°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,538
N/A
N/A
$3,376
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

67° to 68°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,201
N/A
N/A
$2,670
Settled
No
polymarket

63°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,955
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

64° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,783
N/A
N/A
$2,783
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,991
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$775
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on June 14, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket both reference official weather data but differ in measurement date, data source, and resolution granularity, creating potential settlement conflicts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references Jun 13, 2026 while Polymarket references Jun 14, 2026. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic resolves to Yes for all possible temperature ranges, creating a logical contradiction. Data sources (NWS vs Wunderground) and measurement precision (unspecified vs whole degrees) also differ.Hero tip: This divergence is critical and makes cross-platform arbitrage extremely risky. Clarify with each platform whether Kalshi's Jun 13 date is intentional or a specification error. Kalshi's universal Yes resolution suggests a market design flaw. If you hold positions on both platforms, treat them as completely independent events with no correlation assumption.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on minimum temperature for Jun 13, 2026 per National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). All six conditions (temp < 65F, 65-66F, 67-68F, 69-70F, 71-72F, or > 72F) resolve to Yes, meaning the market resolves Yes regardless of outcome. Key quote: 'If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City for Jun 13, 2026, is [any range] according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on lowest temperature for Jun 14, 2026 at LaGuardia Airport Station per Wunderground historical data, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Offers 11 distinct temperature range buckets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26' with resolution source 'https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the minimum temperature recorded at Central Park, NY on June 13, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed through the NWS New York Forecast Office website under the Observed Weather tab for Central Park NY. The market is divided into six temperature ranges: 64°F or below, 65-66°F, 67-68°F, 69-70°F, 71-72°F, and 73°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official report should be used for resolution rather than preliminary readings or third-party weather services.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, historical volatility, and tail-risk scenarios that formal models may underweight. While the National Weather Service provides point estimates and confidence intervals, market prices reflect collective belief about actual outcomes—including uncertainty and edge cases. Comparing this market's odds to published forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less downside risk than official guidance suggests, making it a useful cross-check for understanding consensus confidence in the predicted temperature range.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform uses distinct contract structures: Kalshi may offer binary or range-based outcomes at different granularity, while Polymarket's order-book model allows continuous repricing. Trader composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures also influence how quickly each platform reflects new weather data or model updates. Additionally, different user bases may have varying risk appetites or information access, causing temporary price gaps. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage opportunities and highlights which platform's participants hold stronger conviction on specific temperature bands.

Major weather model updates—especially from the GFS, ECMWF, or NAM—can shift odds significantly as forecasters revise their temperature predictions. Unusual atmospheric patterns, jet-stream positioning, or tropical systems approaching the Northeast would trigger repricing. Real-time conditions in the days leading up to June 14 matter most; a sudden cold front or heat dome would rapidly move prices. Additionally, historical analogues and seasonal anomalies traders monitor may prompt position adjustments. Close attention to 7–10 day forecasts and any National Weather Service alerts will be key drivers of market momentum.