Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jun 5, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts typically issue deterministic point forecasts or confidence intervals, prediction markets price uncertainty continuously and adjust based on new data and trader conviction. By Jun 6, 2026, comparing the market's implied probability for specific temperature ranges against National Weather Service or other meteorological models can reveal whether traders are more bullish or bearish on Minneapolis temperatures than official forecasts suggest.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Minneapolis on June 5, 2026 is priced as binary or range-based contracts, where traders buy or sell shares corresponding to specific temperature thresholds. The market price reflects the collective probability that the actual low will fall within or below each defined range. Traders profit if their prediction matches the realized temperature, creating incentives for accurate pricing. Kalshi's order book displays bid-ask spreads for each outcome, and prices update continuously as new trades execute and weather information emerges.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after the close of trading on June 5, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on that date. The specific data source and measurement methodology are defined in the market's terms at contract inception. Once the actual low temperature is confirmed and published, the market settles automatically, and traders' profits or losses are finalized based on whether their positions matched the realized outcome.

Several factors can shift odds for Minneapolis's June 5 low temperature. Major weather pattern changes—such as a cold front, high-pressure system, or jet stream repositioning—will trigger significant repricing. Updated seasonal forecasts, climate indices like the North Atlantic Oscillation, and historical analogs for early June in Minneapolis also influence trader behavior. As June 5 approaches, short-range weather models become more reliable and can cause sharp moves. Real-time atmospheric data, solar activity, and any unusual weather events in the preceding weeks will drive continuous market adjustments.